Up to 70% of the Amazon rainforest could be lost if current trends in deforestation, warming, and land degradation continue, according to Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre.
Jonathan Watts reports for The Guardian.
In short:
- The Amazon rainforest is nearing a tipping point that could trigger irreversible ecological collapse, with 18% already deforested and global temperatures rising toward the danger threshold of 2–2.5°C.
- Deforestation, cattle ranching, and soy farming are drying out the forest, weakening its water recycling ability and making it increasingly fire-prone and less biodiverse.
- Loss of the Amazon could drastically cut rainfall in major agricultural regions across South America and release 200–250 billion tons of CO₂, pushing climate goals out of reach.
Key quote:
“We are perilously close to a point of no return.”
— Carlos Nobre, climate scientist at the University of São Paulo
Why this matters:
The Amazon functions as a massive climate stabilizer and water pump for South America, and its degradation has global consequences. Deforestation, fires, and warming are converting dense rainforest into dry, fire-prone scrubland that can’t sustain the biodiversity or climate benefits the region now provides. This shift weakens rainfall patterns critical to crops across Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, with direct risks to food security. It also threatens to unleash billions of tons of carbon dioxide from dying trees and degraded soils, making it far harder to limit global warming. As temperatures rise and dry seasons grow longer, parts of the forest are already tipping past recovery. Criminal networks profiting from land grabs, arson, and illegal mining worsen the damage. Scientists warn that once this vast system unravels, it won't come back.
Learn more: Colombia cuts deforestation by one-third as government targets Amazon and illegal mining
