President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to boost oil production faces significant obstacles from market forces, corporate caution and potential trade conflicts, regardless of his ability to reverse President Biden's offshore drilling restrictions.
Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman report for POLITICO.
In short:
- U.S. oil companies are hesitant to increase production without strong market demand, despite Trump’s push to expand drilling access and cut fees.
- Rising electric vehicle adoption, especially in China, is driving down global demand for gasoline and could limit oil market growth.
- Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could increase energy costs by disrupting access to key oil supplies for U.S. refineries.
Key quote:
“Trump can make the regulatory environment more accommodative to oil producers, but the market will let them know when higher output is needed.”
— Bob Ryan, Ryan Commodity Insights
Why this matters:
Market trends suggest oil demand may peak soon, driven by EV growth and efficiency improvements. Trade restrictions and higher production costs could further complicate Trump's energy goals, potentially leading to price hikes for consumers.
