Submarine detection is growing more difficult as climate change alters how sound moves through warming seas, shrinking the range of sonar in key military regions.
Jacob Judah reports for The New York Times.
In short:
- NATO scientists modeled how underwater sound propagation has changed due to climate warming and found it could sharply reduce sonar detection range in areas like the North Atlantic and western Pacific.
- Warmer ocean surfaces bend sound downward into cooler layers, making it harder for sonar systems to detect submarines at a distance.
- These changes may give strategic advantage to nations like Russia and China, while U.S. climate-related defense programs are being canceled under President Trump.
Key quote:
“If it becomes even more difficult to detect them, then the result is that things become harder for navies that are on the defensive.”
— Mauro Gilli, military technology researcher at the Hertie School in Berlin
Why this matters:
Sound is the main tool navies use to detect submarines, especially in the deep ocean where radar and satellites fall short. But as climate change warms surface waters, it also reshapes how sound travels, creating underwater “shadow zones” where submarines can disappear from detection. That makes it harder for military forces to track threats, raising concerns not just about conventional warfare but nuclear deterrence, since ballistic missile submarines rely on secrecy. As the climate shifts faster than military technology can adapt, both environmental and geopolitical stability are at greater risk.
Related: Scientists call on UN to adopt bold ocean policies to combat climate and biodiversity threats
